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☆ Powell should be 'calm, cool, and collected' around rate decision, says Julia Coronado
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPowell should be 'calm, cool, and collected' around rate decision, says Julia CoronadoSubadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Societe Generale, Julia Coronado, founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives, Mike Remak, head of investments at Citi Global Wealth join CNBC's 'The Exchange' to share expectations from the Federal Reserve.

Persons: Powell, Julia Coronado Subadra Rajappa, Julia Coronado, Mike Remak Organizations: Societe Generale, Citi Global Wealth, Federal Reserve

☆ Live Updates: Inflation Expected to Remain Stubborn
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +4 min

Policymakers have made it clear that they want to see further evidence that inflation is cooling before they cut interest rates. But Fed officials do not want to cut rates before they are confident that inflation is on track to return to normal. That threat of lingering inflation has become a more serious concern for policymakers since the start of the year. Inflation has flatlined in recent months after months of steady declines, raising some alarm at the Fed and among forecasters. Going into the year, investors expected the Fed to cut rates sharply in 2024 — to about 4 percent — but have dialed back those expectations.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Laura Rosner, Warburton, it’s, you’ve, ” Organizations: Federal, Fed, Goldman, Deutsche Bank Locations: Central

☆ The Fed will likely cut rates three times this year, says MacroPolicy's Constance Hunter
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed will likely cut rates three times this year, says MacroPolicy's Constance HunterConstance Hunter, MacroPolicy Perspectives, joins 'Fast Money' to talk the March jobs report and its impact on the broader economy and markets.

Persons: MacroPolicy's Constance Hunter Constance Hunter

☆ Expect higher interest rates in 2024, says Bleakley's Peter Boockvar
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailExpect higher interest rates in 2024, says Bleakley's Peter BoockvarPeter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Financial, and Julia Coronado, Macropolicy Perspectives founder, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the outlook for rate hikes, the likelihood of a recession, and more.

Persons: Bleakley's Peter Boockvar Peter Boockvar, Julia Coronado Organizations: Bleakley, Macropolicy

☆ GDP: 5 reasons the economy grew so much last quarter despite the Fed’s efforts
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

New York CNN —The US economy wasn’t supposed to expand this much — or even at all — after so many rate hikes. But against all odds, the economy grew at an annualized rate of almost 5% last quarter, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. By making it more expensive for businesses and consumers to borrow money, those rate hikes were intended to get people to cut back on spending. For a while, many economists feared that the Fed’s rate hikes would climb too high too fast that it would give rise to a recession. That is to say that without more interest rate hikes, there could be a growing risk that inflation will accelerate even more.

Persons: ” said David Beckworth, “, That’s, ”, it’s, Courtney Shupert, Shupert, there’s, EJ Antoni Organizations: New, New York CNN, Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, George Mason University, Treasury Department, CNN, Productivity, Workers, Labor Department, Heritage Foundation Locations: New York

"If long-term interest rates remain elevated because of higher term premiums, there may be less need to raise the fed funds rate," Logan said. The Dallas Fed president said the economy has been stronger than she had expected, as has been the labor market, and that inflation was still too high despite progress in lowering it. But because Logan ran the New York Fed's bond portfolio for years before she took the top job at the Dallas Fed, her views on what's driving long-term rates higher could carry considerable weight as policymakers weigh their next moves. "The expectation of lower Federal Reserve asset holdings over time implies that other investors will need to hold more long-duration securities, which appears to be one factor among the many contributing to higher term premiums," Logan said. Figuring out how much of the higher long-term rates is due to higher term premiums is complex, she added.

Persons: Lorie Logan, Ann Saphir, Logan, Mary Daly, Julia Coronado, Lorie, she's, Krishna Guha, Guha, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank, Dallas, Kansas City, REUTERS, Rights, Treasury, Federal Reserve, National Association for Business Economics, Market, San Francisco Fed, Evercore ISI, Dallas Fed, Fed, Thomson Locations: Kansas, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, York

Most economists think that while the hit could be substantial, it will not be so big that it would plunge America into a recession. Goldman Sachs analysts expect renewed student loan payments to cost households about $70 billion per year. But the student loan payments will also restart at the same time consumers face a number of other headwinds, including shrinking savings piles, a cooler job market and higher price levels after two years of rapid inflation. Retailers have begun to publicly fret that the resumption of student loan payments could collide with those other developments, pushing their shoppers closer to a breaking point. Executives from companies like Walmart, Macy’s, Best Buy and Gap have all warned analysts and investors that student loan payments may put pressure on shoppers’ budgets, eating into some of their sales in the process.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Biden, Julia Coronado, “ It’s, ” Organizations: Hollywood, United Auto Workers, Retailers, Walmart, Macy’s

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Wells Fargo's Mark Smith and MacroPolicy Perspectives' Julia Coronado
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Wells Fargo's Mark Smith and MacroPolicy Perspectives' Julia CoronadoMark Smith, Wells Fargo Advisors senior vice president and portfolio manager, Julia Coronado, MacroPolicy Perspectives founder and president, CNBC's Steve Liesman and Rick Santelli join 'The Exchange' to discuss Fed rates, employment index, and economic trends.

Persons: Wells Fargo's Mark Smith, Julia Coronado Mark Smith, Julia Coronado, CNBC's Steve Liesman, Rick Santelli Organizations: Wells, Advisors, MacroPolicy

☆ Wells Fargo's Mark Smith sees more inflationary headwinds ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWells Fargo's Mark Smith sees more inflationary headwinds aheadMark Smith, Wells Fargo Advisors senior vice president and portfolio manager, Julia Coronado, MacroPolicy Perspectives founder and president, CNBC's Steve Liesman and Rick Santelli join 'The Exchange' to discuss Fed rates, employment index, and economic trends.

Persons: Wells, Mark Smith, Julia Coronado, CNBC's Steve Liesman, Rick Santelli Organizations: Wells, Advisors, MacroPolicy

If housing cost pressures start to ease more in the coming months, as many economists expect, then the Federal Reserve is almost certainly done. Headline annual consumer price inflation rose a little less than expected last month to 3.2%, and annual core inflation cooled slightly to 4.7%, as forecast. Reuters ImageReuters ImageShelter inflation is running at a 7.7% annual rate and has been far stickier than policymakers would have liked. But Parsons reckons lag effects will soon be bringing shelter inflation down more quickly. Reuters ImageReuters ImageReuters Image(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters)Reporting by Jamie McGeever; editing by Jonathan OatisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Jay Parsons, Parsons, Jerome Powell's, Phil Suttle, Julia Coronado, Andreas Steno Larsen, Powell, Jamie McGeever, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Federal Reserve, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Fed, Traders, Reuters, CPI, Suttle, Steno Research, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, ORLANDO, Florida, materializing

☆ July Inflation Report Price Pressures Expected to Pick Up Slightly
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | Neal Boudette | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +3 min

Instead, Wall Street analysts and policymakers at the Federal Reserve will scrutinize the “core” inflation measure that strips out food and fuel prices, which can be volatile. When it comes to the monthly change in core inflation, the news could be a lot more encouraging. If that pans out, it would make for the lowest back-to-back core inflation readings since early 2021. Still, the inflation report could be more difficult for the Biden administration to brag about than the last few reports, which showed across-the-board cooling. “Core inflation pressures are cooling down,” she said.

Persons: Biden, “, ”, Laura Rosner, Warburton, ” Carl Riccadonna Organizations: Inflation, Wall Street, Federal Reserve

☆ The possibility of a soft landing looks more tangible than it did 6 months ago, says Julia Coronado
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe possibility of a soft landing looks more tangible than it did 6 months ago, says Julia CoronadoJulia Coronado, MacroPolicy Perspectives founder and president and former FOMC economist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest productivity numbers, the Fed's rate hike campaign, Fitch's rating downgrade, and more.

Persons: Julia Coronado Julia Coronado Organizations: MacroPolicy

☆ 3 signs the US economy is set to zoom past growth expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Noah Sheidlower | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

On Thursday, new GDP data will show just how much the US economy grew between April and June. The US has also been experiencing a factory boom, with construction spending on US manufacturing nearly doubling from May 2022 to May 2023. Manufacturing employment recently hit its highest level since 2008, and since Biden took office, around 800,000 manufacturing jobs were added. In the first two quarters of this year, applications to start a business likely to hire employees grew 7% year-over-year. Sectors leading likely employer business applications include accommodation and food services, construction, health care and social assistance, and retail trade.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Joe, Biden, Ellen Zentner, Julia Coronado Organizations: Infrastructure Investment, Jobs, Service, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Congressional, Investments, Economic, Sectors, National Association for Business Economics, Conference, CPI, Federal Locations: Wall, Silicon, —, Philadelphia, frastructure, Mississippi, North Carolina

☆ Top economists do U-turn on recession forecasts as most now see it as unlikely in next year
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

A 71% majority of economists put the odds of a recession in the next 12 months at 50% or less. It's a turnabout from a March, when a majority saw a recession sometime in 2023. A 71% majority of economists put the odds of a recession in the next 12 months at 50% or less, according to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics. That includes a sizable chunk who are especially optimistic, with one-fourth saying a recession has a probability of 25% or less. And in the March NABE survey, 58% said the US was either already in a recession or that it would come sometime in 2023.

Persons: It's, Julia Coronado, Steve Eisman, Paul Krugman Organizations: National Association for Business Economics, Service Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ We believe next week's Fed rate hike will be the last: MacroPolicy Perspectives' Julia Coronado
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe believe next week's Fed rate hike will be the last: MacroPolicy Perspectives' Julia CoronadoJulia Coronado, MacroPolicy Perspectives founder and president, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's rate hike campaign, what to expect from the Fed next week, and more.

Persons: Julia Coronado Julia Coronado Organizations: MacroPolicy, Fed

PinnedInflation data released on Wednesday showed a pronounced cooling and offered some of the most hopeful news since the Federal Reserve began trying to tame rapid price increases 16 months ago. But Federal Reserve officials are still trying to assess whether the cool down is likely to be quick and complete. Officials have signaled in recent weeks that they are likely to raise interest rates at their July 25-26 meeting. For one thing, the cost of housing as measured by the Consumer Price Index — which relies on rent prices — is coming down sharply. Interest rates increases work partly by slowing the job market and cooling wage increases, so the Fed’s fight against inflation and the strength of the labor market are closely tied.

Persons: ”, Laura Rosner, Warburton, it’s, . Rosner, Airfares, “, Beth Weaver, Loretta Mester, ” Julia Pollak Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, Consumer, Buick GMC, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, ZipRecruiter Locations: Erie, Pa

PinnedInflation data released on Wednesday showed a pronounced cooling and offered some of the most hopeful news since the Federal Reserve began trying to tame rapid price increases 16 months ago. Officials have signaled in recent weeks that they are likely to raise interest rates at their July 25-26 meeting. For one thing, the cost of housing as measured by the Consumer Price Index — which relies on rent prices — is coming down sharply. The Fed officially targets 2 percent inflation on average over time, though it defines that goal using a separate inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index. Interest rates increases work partly by slowing the job market and cooling wage increases, so the Fed’s fight against inflation and the strength of the labor market are closely tied.

☆ A few more rate hikes might not be as damaging to market sentiment after June pause: Julia Coronado
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailA few more rate hikes might not be as damaging to market sentiment after June pause: Julia CoronadoJulia Coronado, MacroPolicy Perspectives, joins CNBC's 'Taking Stock' special to discuss recent comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, the central bank's next moves, and the banking sector's impact on Federal Reserve policy.

Persons: Julia Coronado Julia Coronado, Jerome Powell Organizations: MacroPolicy, Federal

The fresh data offer the latest evidence that the Fed’s push to control rapid price increases is beginning to work. Investors have been betting that Fed officials will leave rates unchanged at their meeting this week, breaking their long streak of increases. Even so, many investors continue to expect that Fed officials will restart rate increases in July. That “core” price index rose 5.3 percent in May compared with a year earlier. And price increases for goods excluding motor vehicles remained positive, instead of subtracting from inflation as some economists have been expecting.

Persons: “, ” Laura Rosner, Warburton, Airfares, Ms, Rosner, Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Mortgage, Association

☆ Recession will be an early '24 problem, not this year: MacroPolicy Perspectives' Julia Coronado
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRecession will be an early '24 problem, not this year: MacroPolicy Perspectives' Julia CoronadoJulia Coronado, founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives, and Tyler Goodspeed, Cato Institute adjunct scholar and former acting CEA chairman, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss their thoughts on the economic outlook for 2023, how they view the relatively strong labor market, and more.

☆ Better supply and demand balance is close-at-hand: Macropolicy Perspectives' Julia Coronado
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBetter supply and demand balance is close-at-hand: Macropolicy Perspectives' Julia CoronadoMacropolicy Perspectives' Julia Coronado, and Michael Strain, director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss the recent jobless claims data, Strain's emphasis on the levels in yields, and more.

☆ Contagion and fallout risk 'not at all' finished from SVB collapse: Former IMF economist Ken Rogoff
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailContagion and fallout risk 'not at all' finished from SVB collapse: Former IMF economist Ken RogoffJulia Coronado, MacroPolicy Perspectives founder and former Fed economist, and Ken Rogoff, former chief IMF economist and Harvard economics professor, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss what the Federal Reserve should do at its next meeting, if there's further contagion risk from the SVB collapse and more.

☆ Fed Chair Powell's testimony: What it means for the market
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed Chair Powell's testimony: What it means for the marketEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, and Julia Coronado, founder of MacroPolicy perspectives, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss how much weight Powell's comments carry, Yardeni's expectations for the markets in March, and more.

☆ Premarket stocks: Why the Fed is increasingly flying blind on the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

But lately, some economists have begun to worry that the data on which Fed officials rely is becoming increasingly inaccurate. That causes more volatility in the incoming data and hence more volatility in markets, economists say. To what extent are declining response rates to surveys actually impacting the data we use? It is absolutely critical for the Fed and markets that the incoming data is as reliable as possible. Those earnings reached what Buffett called a “record” — $30.8 billion in 2022, topping the $27.5 billion in the prior year.

☆ MacroPolicy Perspectives founder: We are expecting a 25-basis-point rate hike next week
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMacroPolicy Perspectives founder: We are expecting a 25-basis-point rate hike next weekJulia Coronado, founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss what investors should monitor in Thursday's GDP data, how markets will react to good and bad news, and more.

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